Crop margin simulator

How to use it

1. 1Enter the crop, the area, the yield you expect (your average over several seasons) and the selling price, and where each value comes from.
2. 2Add the costs per hectare: quantity times price (kg of seed, kg of fertiliser, litres of diesel, hours…). Fixed costs with quantity 1 and unit “ha”.
3. 3Add the by-products and subsidies you expect: the margin is shown with and without subsidies.
4. 4Check the break-even point, which variables move the margin most and the yield-by-price table. When signed in, save it as a plot.

How it calculates

• Revenue = yield × price + by-products. Cost = Σ quantity per ha × unit price.
• Margin without subsidies = revenue − cost; with subsidies, subsidies per ha are added. Total margin = margin with subsidies × area.
• Break-even yield = (cost − by-products − subsidies) / price. Break-even price = (cost − by-products − subsidies) / yield.
• Sensitivity: each variable ±20%, one at a time (yield and price move sales equally and share a single bar). Table: yield and price from −30% to +30%.

See the full methodology →

Verifiable example

With the tool's fictitious example (rain-fed wheat, 50 ha, 3.5 t/ha at €220/t, €60/ha of straw and €150/ha of subsidies), the cost is €823/ha and revenue €830/ha: the margin is €7/ha without subsidies and €157/ha with them (€7,850 in total), so subsidies are 95.5% of the margin. Break-even is 2.79 t/ha with subsidies and 3.47 t/ha without them.

Limitations

• The yield is your assumption, not a calibrated prediction or a guaranteed yield.
• It doesn't include depreciation of your own machinery, financing or taxes, unless you add them as items.
• Subsidies are the ones you enter: their real amount depends on the rules and the application each season.