Energy project simulator

How to use it

1. 1Choose solar PV or wind and mark the location on the map (or type the latitude and longitude).
2. 2Enter the capacity and configuration. For solar PV you can let PVGIS calculate the optimal tilt and orientation.
3. 3Query the resource (PVGIS for sun, NASA POWER for wind) or enter it by hand if you have your own study.
4. 4Replace the example economic values with those from your budget, contract or bill, and check the sensitivity.

How it calculates

• Solar PV: monthly output from PVGIS (PVcalc) for 1 kWp with your losses, technology and angles, multiplied by the capacity (the PVGIS calculation is linear with capacity).
• Wind: wind at hub height v(h) = v(50 m) · (h/50)^α; Weibull distribution with shape k and scale c = v̄ / Γ(1 + 1/k); generic cubic power curve between cut-in and rated speed; density correction for altitude; energy = average power × hours × availability × (1 − losses).
• Output in year t = year 1 × (1 − degradation)^(t−1). Revenue = output × price, with annual escalation. OPEX = fixed per kW + variable per MWh, with escalation.
• NPV = Σ cash flows / (1 + rate)^t, with the investment in year 0. IRR: the rate that makes NPV equal to zero. Simple payback, undiscounted.
• LCOE = (investment + discounted OPEX) / discounted energy. Debt with constant payments; coverage = project cash flow / debt service.
• One-year P90 = mean − 1.2816 × year-to-year deviation from PVGIS (assumes a normal distribution).

See the full methodology →

Verifiable example

1,000 kWp in Albarracín (Teruel; 40.407 N, 1.444 W) at the optimal 35° tilt, facing south, with 14% losses and 2025 silicon modules: PVGIS 5.3 gives 1,583.5 kWh per kWp per year, i.e. 1,583.5 MWh in the first year. With the example values (€700/kW, €15/kW·year rising 2%, 0.5% degradation, €50/MWh, 25 years and 6%): investment of €700,000, first-year cash flow of €64,175.74, NPV of €36,050, IRR of 6.57%, payback in 11.6 years and LCOE of €48.14/MWh. In the simulator the NPV can vary by a few euros: it requests the data for 1 kWp and PVGIS rounds it to hundredths.

Limitations

• It's a preliminary assessment: it doesn't replace a resource study, a technical project or an installer's offer.
• It doesn't assess grid access and connection: we have no capacity data, and being near a line doesn't mean there is capacity.
• Wind uses a generic power curve and the monthly mean wind from a coarse-resolution reanalysis (about 50 km): real wind depends on terrain and obstacles.
• Pre-tax results, without subsidies, network charges or an hourly price profile.
• Solar output doesn't include nearby shading, trackers or batteries; it does include the terrain horizon PVGIS calculates.