Growth and probability
Compound growth and doubling time, and the probability of something happening at least once.
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Compound growth
Result
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Probability of it happening at least once
Result
The probability must be between 0 and 100%.
Calculation version: personal@1.0.0. The calculation runs in your browser: we don't send or store the amounts you enter. We only count, without identifying you, that the tool has been used.
How to use it
- 1For growth, enter the starting value, the rate per period and the number of periods.
- 2For probability, enter the probability of something happening in one attempt and the number of independent attempts.
How it calculates
- Final value = start × (1 + r)ⁿ. Periods to double = ln 2 / ln(1 + r); the rule of 72 (72 / r%) is an approximation.
- At least once = 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ. Attempts to reach a target probability q: ⌈ln(1 − q) / ln(1 − p)⌉.
Verifiable example
100 growing 7% per period reaches 386.97 after 20 periods and doubles in 10.24 (the rule of 72 gives 10.29). Something with a 5% probability per attempt happens at least once in 20 attempts with a 64.15% probability.
Limitations
- It assumes a constant rate and, for probability, attempts that are independent of each other.
What the paid levels will add
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Indicative result
It doesn't constitute financial, tax or investment advice. Check important decisions with a professional.